Who is really winning the primary for Congress?
Aug 12th, 2010 by David Anderson
For Immediate Release
Urquhart Leads Rollins among Republicans – Statistical Dead-heat among All Voters
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REHOBOTH BEACH, DE – Results of two critical polls released today gives Republican Glen Urquhart reason to celebrate. The first poll commissioned by the Urquhart campaign and done by ccAdvertising shows Urquhart with a solid lead of 7 points over opponent Michele Rollins among likely Republican Primary voters set to vote in the September 14th election.
The statewide survey of registered Delaware Republican voters assessed the views of Republicans planning to vote in the September 14th Primary Election and had 16,803 participants.
Brian McAllister of ccAdvertising stated, “In the race for Congress in Delaware, among registered Republicans, Glen Urquhart polls at 38.96%, a 7.01% lead over establishment candidate Michele Rollins, who polls at 31.95%. The undecided’s, who will determine the winner of this race, stand at 29.09%.”
In further exploration of the issues, the survey determined that 69.11% of respondents who do not intend to vote for Glen Urquhart would be more likely to trust Glen Urquhart over Michele Rollins on the issue of life; 65.61% would be more likely to trust Glen Urquhart over Michele Rollins to cut taxes and spending in Washington; and 73.54% would be more likely to vote for Glen Urquhart over Michele Rollins knowing that he is political outsider, small businessman and champion of Delaware’s family values.
The firm of ccAdvertising accurately predicted the change in momentum and result of the recent Hawaii special election where Republican Charles Djou won the special election in the heavily Democratic 1st district of Hawaii.
The second poll by the Democrat polling company Public Policy Polling shows Rollins and Urquhart in a virtual tie when considering the opinion of a cross-section of Democrat, Republican and Independent Delaware voters at 32% – 30% respectively, with a margin of error of 4%.
“There is little doubt that the myth of Ms. Rollins inevitable Republican nomination has been shattered”, said campaign spokesperson David Anderson. “The same work ethic that allowed Glen Urquhart to create jobs in the private sector is now allowing Delawareans to discover a new kind of public servant and they are responding with their voices and their votes. The message that debt kills jobs is resonating.”
Some of the underlying numbers in the Public Policy Poll such as near even favorable ratings to Ms Rollins and Mr. Urquhart’s lower unfavorable numbers give statistical confirmation of our results.
The Urquhart campaign also took great pleasure in discovering that two-time Lt. Governor John Carney was unable to break the 50% mark in this first Congressional poll of the season.
Said Anderson, “John Carney may be the biggest loser of all in this first of the season poll. He is a known commodity and his name identification. alone should have allowed him to garner at least half of the head-to-head balloting. By November if not sooner, the choice will be clear, Glen Urquhart, the new voice for Delaware, or the old and failed policies of John Carney.”
End
Note from me: The results for the horse race are based upon initial responses not further questioning or market research. The margin of error is 2%. The author is Communications Director for Urquhart for Congress.
Founder’s Values has a poll showing Urquhart up 3 to 1.
I think Ross and rakestraw and Forsten just jumped off the DMB.
Good.
Anon the Moron
How apropos a name for you. I hear that Janet Kilpatrick is whooping your ass in the county council race.
Are you kidding me with that pathetic push poll?
Is this the infamous “heiress” Rollins push poll? Give me a break.
I’ve never been convinced this Rollins woman had a lock on that nomination and Urquhart has had some terrific campaign ads. The recent ad linking Urquhart as the guy against Obama is a work of art.
Michelle Rollins you don’t hear much about at all. She tends to hang out with the elite with sophisticated meet and greet things and no one much knows who the hell she is.
Heh.
You get a poll they don’t like and of course it’s a push poll.
read ‘em and weep you Rollins lovers….I don’t think she’s going to wiin this thing.
The question was simple and with out previous qualifications except are you likely to vote in the gop primary. Other questions asked layer in the second part of the poll are for marketing purposes. There was never a reclose question because it was not a poll to push results. I could understand your dismissal if you didn’t have the internals of the Public Policy poll.
David this was a push poll if I ever saw one. The fact that Urquhart only comes out ahead by 7% when Urquhart misrepresents the Rollins positions and constantly labels her as an heiress demonstrates how desperate Urquhart is.
Here is the truth about this bogus Poll.
http://www.delawaretomorrow.com/urquhart-push-poll-details/
Man, this group of R’s in Delaware, sure don’t need any enemies.
What part of order escapes you tw? There was no push poll. The results are with the first 3 questions. There was no attempt to reclose afterwards. Don’t be distracted by the marketing portion which came afterwards and only affected I believe a few thousand.
If the internals to the ppp poll contradicted this, I would never have released it.
I agree with m.o. but at least we (both sides ) are battling it out in the primary. We will be on the same side September 16.
Considering that…
Urquhart has been highly visible…
The Rollins campaign appears virtually stillborn…
That Urquhart has put the hard work into party building…
That Rollins appears to only be moving in a tight little inner circle of inner party members…
That there are still not a lot of people who know either of them…
That there are still a large number of undecideds…
That Urquhart’s lead is not beyond my ability to believe…
…That therefore this poll is highly believable and exactly the result I would have expected….
Urquhart has three things going for him; passion, energy and brains.
I hope the ‘Jamacian Jerk Caviar’ crowd keeps underestimating him.
The question is will the establishment insiders, back Urquhart when he defeats Rollins? The Republican Party of DE is in such a massive self-destruct mode I don’t think they will. I mean they got humiliated with Jan Ting, got run out of town in 08 to the point that we all thought Dems would reign for the rest of time. We then received the greatest gift of all, Barack Hussein Obama who gave us the opportunity of a lifetime and what do the Delaware Republicans do?? They turn their back on conservative candidates, not only that they slander, lie, cheat, plant stories in the News Journal and treat the conservative base, who carried their sorry butts in the 90′s, worse than they treat the Democrats. Shame on you DE Republican establishment I am done with you!!!
The question is will the establishment insiders, back Urquhart when he defeats Rollins?
Not enthusiastically, but who cares? The old elite are rapidly becoming irrelevant. It’s the upstate busybodies of the country club set that destroyed the Republican Party in this state in the first place. It’s about time someone (Urquhart) gives them a much-needed slap-in-the-face.
I intend to nominate Frank for the head of the Sussex GOP.
And I’ll nominate TW in charge of spelling and punctuation and all necessary ass licking of Senator Castle.
Somebody gotta do it.
Pat
That sounds like a winner.
I’ve nicknamed Castle sycophants, “sodomites,” because Castle has been screwing conservative republicans in the backside for a few years now.
Considering that…
Urquhart has been highly visible…
The Rollins campaign appears virtually stillborn…
That Urquhart has put the hard work into party building…
That Rollins appears to only be moving in a tight little inner circle of inner party members…
Mike,
I am curious why you say this. I see both in Sussex and occasionally Kent quite a bit, at festivals, parades, etc. My friend in NCC says that she sees Rollins at many non-political events up there.
We’ll find-out who’s right in a few days.
Well, Cookie, everything is strictly dependent upon one’s point of view, so I will concede you may see things I don’t.
But from what I see, he’s running circles around her. There is no sign of her on television, her earned media coverage appears to be non existent and she appears to be doing little to build inroads to the conservative base.
That’s what I’m seeing and that’s why I say that. But in fairness, I don’t see everything.
But in fairness, I don’t see everything.
Yes, but ‘kooky’ does!
I’m leaning towards Rollins slightly(still open), but I gotta say Urquhart has been on the move recently. He has more signs out there than any other candidate, and does a great job of getting himself out there.