What did you really expect?
Jun 3rd, 2008 by JohnFeroce
The news is not good for Obama.
Obama’s challenge going into the general election is how does he get Hillary Clinton supporters to focus on his campaign and not him? One could argue he cannot, when he made the primary all about him vs Hillary and not issues.
Rasmussen posts – “A new Pew Research Center poll points to a surging tide of fury, especially among white women. As recently as April, this group preferred Obama over the presumptive Republican John McCain by three percentage points. By May, McCain enjoyed an eight-point lead among white women. ”
Will he get white women back in his corner? As always please judge for yourself from the following:
“What’s dangerous for the Democratic Party is that, for many women, the eye of the storm has moved beyond Hillary or anything she does at this point. The offense has turned personal.
They are now in their own orbit, having abandoned popular Democratic Websites that reveled in crude anti-Hillary outpourings — and established new ones on which they trade stories of the Obama people’s nastiness.
But worse than the online malice has been the affronts to their faces.
Tara Wooters, a 39-year-old mother from Portland, Ore., told me that wearing a Hillary sticker around town has become an act of defiance. She recalls one young man telling her, “I’d rather vote for a black man than a menopausal woman.”
“We don’t hurl insulting, berating remarks at Obama supporters, or at Obama himself or his family,” Debbie Head, a 40-year-old from Austin, Texas, complained to me.
Remember Peggy Agar? The women do. They can’t stop talking about the Detroit TV reporter who asked Obama a serious question at a Chrysler factory — “How are you going to help American autoworkers?” — to which he answered, “Hold on a second, sweetie.”
“How Obama’s campaign has treated Hillary will not be forgotten,” Janet Rogers, 55, who runs a Bed and Breakfast in Medina, Ohio, wrote me. “I will vote for McCain if Hillary is not the nominee. My husband and friends all feel the same way.”
Indeed. McCain in ’08 has suddenly become a more likely prospect.”
Froma Harrop commentary posted on Rasmussen – Full story here
“In a close election, it would take only tens of thousands of disaffected—and motivated—women in swing states to make the difference. “ New York Observer Full Story
Ah, finally a built-in excuse for people who won’t admit that they just don’t want to vote for a black man.
What are all these folks saying now that she’s said she wouldn’t mind being his VP? She must not be TOO offended.
Anyway….since it’s Obama versus McCain…….
What on earth makes you think it is going to be a close election?
Surely its not the 30 people who attended McCain’s speech in Louisiana, versus the 30,000 filling the Republican Convention Hall with more locals just from St. Paul, than Republicans will be able to muster in August from across the entire country……
Kavips
Your overconfidence excites me.
Put McCain’s speech against Obama’s – and this was a wipe-out. Not a victory. A wipe-out. Rhetorically, they are simply not in the same league. And if the contrast tonight between McCain and Obama holds for the rest of the campaign, McCain is facing a defeat of historic proportions.
That was Andrew Sullivan – but we all know it to be true.
McCain was so bad that I’ve heard that he may not make it to November. That’s why Romney and Huckabee are wroking franticly to get on the ticklet.
John knows well that McCain is a weak candidate, which is why he focuses on his perception of Dem negatives instead of on McCain’s alleged strengths.
The general election campaign has just begun!
Pay attention, John, and get positive!!!
LOL! The fact of the matter is that Obama should be ahead in the polls (over McCain) by LIGHT YEARS yet, somehow, is not. Why is this? Perry? Idiot Jason?
“Your overconfidence excites me.”
As much as your cluelessness excites us?
Hube, maybe because the polls still reflect a three-way race. It would be wise to remember that most of America is not as obsessed about politics as us. Last night I was outside and due to city living I could see into five of my neighbors’ living rooms, and guess what? Not one of them was watching the news. At this point I realized I might have an addiction problem.
Also, as much as I appreciate all this republican concern for the democratic nominee, I would respectfully request you focus your efforts on your candidate. He’s really going to need all the help he can get.
Hube, I’ll take Pandora’s answer as mine too. I’m surprised that you didn’t have a clue!
Those really are sad answers, people. The fact of the matter is that, with Bush’s dismal poll #s, with wide dissatisfaction with the war, w/the econ. struggling, Obama should be CLOBBERING McCain in the polls. He is NOT. That says a LOT.
Pandora – The fact that they weren’t watching the news should worry you. Those are the people who would likely be influenced by the RNC attack ads that are sure to come. Poor souls don’t have the benefit of watching KO and Chris Matthews telling them what to think. Nor have they ever heard of DKos or HuffPo. Their numbers dwarf those of people like you and me and anyone who’s ever visited a political blog.
McCain is not a gifted orator by any stretch of the imagination, but it’s really not about how his speech was delivered. It’s about what he said. He is substance vs. Obama’s fluff. This will resonate with voters.
John – I am a member of the demographic you describe in your post and I feel exactly the same way as the women quoted above. I am not alone. Obama supporters are (predictably) foolish to arrogantly dismiss that as a very real issue for their candidate.
At this point, my candidate will not be the nominee. I will admit that I got a thrill up my leg when she stole his thunder last night. It was a classic alpha move and I couldn’t have been more proud of her. She will eventually drop out (hopefully in the form of suspending her campaign) and I will feel a sense of relief because – to borrow from Nixon – they won’t have Hillary to kick around anymore. Once that happens, the media will turn their spotlight on Obama and he will no longer be able to hide behind her pantsuit, if you will. I will be purring like a kitten as he is exposed for the empty suit that he is. Let the games begin.
Perry – John McCain may be a weak candidate for members of the far-right wing of the party, but he has broad appeal with Indies and ‘embittered’ Clinton supporters. He’s got a better chance than you think.
I watched McCain last night with the “that’s not change we can count on” speech, and all I can say is it creeped me out. I don’t know, but a President should be a little more comfortable in his own skin than McCain appears to be. Something is weird there.
Obama is the most liberal, unqualified, unaccomplished nominee the dems have EVER put up. The blind support he has gotten from the liberal left is almost comical. The republicans get one of the biggest breaks in modern political history: A chance to win an election they have no business even being in.
The republicans get one of the biggest breaks in modern political history: A chance to win an election they have no business even being in.
Perfectly stated, anon. Just what my point was above. This election shouldn’t even be remotely CLOSE.
Hube,
It won’t be close. McCain is going to beat Obama. Libs think elections are about speeches and policy. If the election in 04 was about speeches and policy, how did George Bush win? Elections are about experience, trust, voter identification, qualifications and, generally, centrist views. The republicans, to their credit, learned long ago that running centrists is the way to win elections. They get rid of their far right candidates. The libs are good at one thing: losing. In the end, McCain will be seen as a safe choice and Obama a real risk (and the wrong kind of change will be McCain’s slogan for Obama) And after the libs lose this election there will be only one thing left for them to do in the Party: Blog.
I’ve said it before, but I’ll say it again, it is amazing to me how you are immediately accused of racism if you are not willing to vote for Obama.
Hube, maybe because the polls still reflect a three-way race.
Obama’s supporters can’t stand the fact that Hillary is the stronger electoral college candidate and the dems are throwing away a sure thing for a unproven candidate. The polls reflect a real problem for Obama with core voting blocs and the electoral college. To argue otherwise is foolish.
onion: The polls should reflect that either Obama OR Clinton absolutely CRUSH McCain. They do not.
Again, I ask: Why? There cannot BE a more favorable political environment for the opposition party.
Purely anecdotal, but a clear trend I see running across a lot of lines, party and otherwise, are baby boom age and slightly older voters (my parents’ ages roughly) mimicking the above sentiments. At the heart of it I believe is that Obama’s campaign has so turned many of them off as to achieve a level of certitude in open support for McCain that will be sustained through November. It seems to run pretty deep.
In a way I think it has far more to do with all-too-rapid generational change and a resulting backlash than anything to do with race, no matter how much some may try to cast it otherwise. It may be the “me” versus the “we” generation, in a broad sense, coupled with an unknown political neophyte being forced down these 50+ aged voters’ throats, from all directions.
I think the dreamy uncritical ga-ga over Senator Obama doesn’t sit well with waves and waves of people who grew up with music that was a lot more “we won’t get fooled again” than “kumbaya”. It is very much about choosing the devil they know than the devil they don’t.
Again it is all anecdotal, but I hear it from people who are pretty non-political in nature, but are nonetheless now following the race more closely than ever, enough to venture the opinion in fairly clear terms that they are turned off by Obama.
The ground reality for millions of average voters (only a tiny % of which are on any of these blogs or could be called anything close to political junkies) is that they know Senator McCain as an atypical Republican, moderate enough for their sensibilities. More importantly and the heart of the matter really is that they know Senator McCain, period. He is a known entity not susceptible to being defined by his opponents.
All the Pr-Obama fodder and attacks on McCain in the blogs or by talking heads, no matter how shrill and constant, will not dent this reality a lick. The die is cast on this, and it is as much about gut feeling than intellectual justifications or political exigencies.
Generationally, no amount of young influx in one election cycle is going to overcome the mass numbers of the largest (baby boom) demographic age group in US history, however they trend. If my ear to the ground serves me right, the baby boom and slightly older group is going to end up breaking huge for McCain.
Sorry, kids.
Hube,
That was someone else’s post. I was disagreeing with their assessment. BUT, the fact is, Hillary easily beats McCain in the electoral college because she carries OH, PA, FLA and Obama loses at least two of them.
Funny, I just had a talk with my parents (HUGE Hillary supporters). Last night they were ranting and raving, threatening to vote for McCain. This morning my Mom called me. She thanked me for letting her vent, and said, that while she and Dad were still upset, the Democratic primary fight was a FAMILY fight, and that, in the end, family sticks together.
Anecdotal? Yes. But my point is that every anecdotal story republicans put out can be countered.
Oh, and here’s another fun anecdotal story. My neighbor at the beach is a White House lawyer who voted for Bush twice. Guess who he’s voting for?
Generationally, no amount of young influx in one election cycle is going to overcome the mass numbers of the largest (baby boom) demographic age group in US history, however they trend. If my ear to the ground serves me right, the baby boom and slightly older group is going to end up breaking huge for McCain.
Yep. Sad to say, I agree. Even in 04 I knew some moderate democrats that were voting for Kerry. Not this time. The backlash against the left and an unproven, inexperienced candidate will be too much to overcome. This battle in the democartic party is racial, generational and left vs. center. The snideness of the left, who ain’t never won anything, leaves them on an island by themselves. The bashing of Hillary and even Ferraro is politcal suicide. They’re done.
Y’all should put your money where your mouth is. If you did, maybe the wagering markets wouldn’t be running 65% for Obama.
Oh, Christian: Yeah, you keep playing the race card, and it’s again apropos of nothing. Nobody on this thread has mentioned race.
Wall Street Journal:
“Indeed, rumors are swirling on the campaign trail that a new video will soon surface featuring Mrs. Obama appearing on a panel with radical speakers during which she makes more controversial statements and references “whitey.” The republican party is trying to contain the tape for later use, but may not be able to.
Pandora, I was not talking about people who are “FAMILY” or, as my mother always says about her own mother, “dyed in the wool” Democrats. Nor am I talking about people whose proximity to the grassroots is the White House lawn, like your DC lawyer with a beach house. That was the point. Democratic party absolutists like your parents or any other manner of just plain inside-the-beltway so-and-so’s are not reflective of the type of regular (i.e. not politically-driven) voters in those age categories. I said it was anecdotal, but I am finding a damn lot enough anecdotes to see a very strong trend in one direction…and it ain’t Obama’s.
Wow, Tyler! So your anecdotes are more substantive than mine? Sorry, ain’t gonna fly. Both our tales are anecdotal, which is my point.
“I said it was anecdotal, but I am finding a damn lot enough anecdotes to see a very strong trend in one direction…and it ain’t Obama’s.”
I can say the same, only change the last word to McCain.
Ultimately this is futile debate which is not based on fact.
Yes, my anecdotes beat your anecdotes, sweetie.
I knew you liked me!
Everybody talks about how it such a horrible environment for Republicans, but it seems to me that things were just as bad if not worse in 2004. Yet, in the days of “Anybody But Bush,” Bush still beat John Kerry pretty handily. I think Democrats have made an awful mistake in taking a risk on Obama’s rhetoric and ignoring the fact that he is even more liberal than John Kerry.
I’ll be interested to actually see what CHANGE Obama is actually talking about, now that McCain will really start taking him to task.
The only way Obama could really CHANGE anything in Washington would be for him to offer to compromise with Republicans on a whole bunch of issues. Republicans certainly aren’t going to move to the left just because Obama is a great speaker. Obama says he wants to CHANGE the way we do politics, but that is absolutely meaningless if the Republicans have no incentive to CHANGE.
The dems keep moving to the left. One day they’ll get it, probably after Obama loses an election few dems could lose. Fact is, liberals haven’t done real well.
McGovern: 17 electoral college
Mondale: 13 electoral college
So, if Obama can get to, say, 240 (he might) the anti-war liberal Presidential candidates of the modern era would have won exactly one election.
(Glad you caught my snark, Pandora. I hate those emoticons, so I leave some comments to chance….).
Tyler, leaving things to chance only makes them more interesting. It’s going to be a rollercoaster of an election season.
I actually think that the issue here is that the models are a little screwy. The Republicans have not had a candidate that is so hated by his party… well… ever. He will not excite “the base” at all. I suspect that Christian Conservatives will stay home in droves this year unless they can be convinced that Obama is the anti-Christ (and I think that movement is afoot).
But without the evangelicals firmly in their corner and with record young and African-American voters coming out, I think that the ranks of “likely voters” is going to be different than 2000 or 2004.
Hube (#19), you’ve already been given an answer that you do not accept. Nevertheless, let us see what the polls say in late October when the rubber meets the road.
For those Clinton supporters who would vote for McCain, I ask your patience to see how Obama does in debating McCain on the issues.
Pandora: “Ultimately this is futile debate which is not based on fact.”
Exactly!
All these people on here making up their minds now; all these people speculating on the outcome based on a few anecdotal observations; makes interesting conversation, but that’s about it.
Tyler, not knowing you I will venture a guess that, you and your surroundings will not be significantly impacted by the downturn in the economy or the endless war either. You don’t worry about fuel for the house or car, or the mortgage payment, the credit card payment, or God-forbid food on your table. Perhaps also there have been none lost or maimed as a result of the Iraq War, or none who have enlisted to fight the war, over there now, or in Afghanistan. I am saying that you may represent the top 5% in your thinking on this presidential campaign issue. Forgive me if I am wrong, but I cannot help but wonder. I would like to think you are taking the needs of our nation into account in your deliberations, in which case ignore all the personal remarks I just made.
My point is that you seem to be ignoring the record that McCain inherits in this race, because that record doesn’t bother you enough. You would rather get cynical about the other candidate even before he has had a chance to make his case. Attorneys are not supposed to do that, are they?
I also suspect that might be underestimating Obama, like ignoring what he has accomplished just in this six month’s campaign.
Finally, very telling about your condescending attitude, coming out like you are before the general election campaign has even begun, using vocabulary like: …”political neophyte being forced down these 50+ aged voters’ throats….”; …”the dreamy uncritical ga-ga over Senator Obama….”; ” All the Pr-Obama fodder ….”; “Sorry, kids.”
Your piece is actually quite insulting to those, like myself, who has examined Obama critically, so far, and come out thinking very highly of the man as a deep thinker and competent leader. That said, I am waiting to observe the general election campaign rollout. You might be advised to do the same!
A start may be to have a look at his web page for his positions on the issues and his goals.
Unbelievable. I raise anecdotal points about what I have personally come across as a demographic trend unfavorable to Obama and my own sense for why. Like clockwork I get horse crap personal scrutiny and conjecture, implying I am wealthy, out of touch, or otherwise insulated from concern.
Hey Perry, don’t take this the wrong way but go **** yourself. You know nothing about me, even speculatively, and your top 5% fantasy about who I am or what struggles or worries I personally face (or not) could not be more wrong.
Not everyone who struggles economically has to be in the bag for your messiah and his snake oil campaign to make it all well. I am wildly and totally unimpressed that Obama has run a successfull propaganda campaign for 6 months with nothing to back it up but a bunch of uncritical devotees and happy talk. But certainly Rove and George Bush should be duly impressed.
My statement was about large handfuls of people I am coming across who are turned off by Obama and his supporters, for whatever reason. You have done a fine job making my case and now adding me to this group with your comments.
If you find my attitude condescending, you take the cake the my friend. My assessments of Obama, and now people like you acting as his proxies, were not insults at anyone but rather blunt reasons why I believe a certain demographic of people are increasingly turned off from him. I think now I can add holier-than-thou ad hominem clairvoyance where the uncritical ga-ga doesn’t fit the bill. If the shoe fits…
My assessment was not a defense of McCain nor his policies by any conceivable interpretation of what I wrote. That was your twisting of it. My numerous critiques of McCain are well documented in these blogs going back to early last year.
When you or any of the other members of the Obama-stasi come up with ONE SINGLE SOLITARY moment of rational analysis, criticism, or doubt about Obama, get back to me. Otherwise, you can save me your latest round of kool-aid, buddy.
By the way, now that I have personally experienced the price to be paid for daring speak the slightest words of non-adoration for Obama (a price I have been hearing and seeing all too much about) I can really relate to those who have been being beaten up all along by the La Obama Nostra.
I have followed Obama plenty closely for a long time now, but rarely if ever have actually commented much less expressed my growing reservations, figuring on giving the benefit of the doubt and keeping my mouth shut.
Truth be told I have held back as much because I really felt no desire to paint a target on my back. The Obama bullies have really refined even the most subtle techniques at suppressing any dissent in this fashion.
To those who fit this tab, your bill will come due from millions when that curtain closes behind our backs in that voting booth. Nevertheless, dream on.
“Perhaps also there have been none lost or maimed as a result of the Iraq War, or none who have enlisted to fight the war, over there now, or in Afghanistan.”
One last thing Perry, I have been to Iraq with an M-16A2 in my lap, a rucksack full of rounds, and two AT-4 rockets strapped across my back. I have had the chance to see Hussein’s palaces from as high as 5000 feet, with my feet dangling out of a UH-60, and in nap of the earth combat reconnaissance flights as part of my Infantry squad in support.
My experiences come nothing close to those of my buddies who stayed in the Army since I got off active duty in ’93, and who have since seen the horrors of this infernal war up close. I worry about them every day. Thank God I have never yet had to mourn the loss of any, but your insinuation that I should perhaps experience such tragedy so I can go over the cliff for your wonder boy candidate is just incredibly offensive.
Well now Tyler, your outburst makes my point. Your condescending attitude has now been demonstrated all over again by your new choice of language, which I spelled out in my first post, not only condescending but outright insulting.
Let’s review my framing of my conjecture: First of all, I said I was “guessing”. Then I finished my guess with the following statement: “Forgive me if I am wrong, but I cannot help but wonder. I would like to think you are taking the needs of our nation into account in your deliberations, in which case ignore all the personal remarks I just made.”
Did you read that Tyler?
As it turns out, my guess was partly incorrect, as you have served our country, for which I thank you. Perhaps part of it was correct — don’t know, since you didn’t respond. That’s OK, it’s your personal business, not mine, so forget it.
Point #1: Bush has waged this Iraq War and asked nothing of any of us except those who volunteer to serve. No sacrifice, nothing! Generally it is the less privileged who have made all the sacrifices. Moreover, it is the Washington power brokers and their neocon spokesmen who have tricked this nation into this Iraq War. They have no stake in it but still profit from investments in our military-industrial complex. If we are to wage war, a draft is the only just way; and honesty in justifying the war is the only just way; and war as a last resort is the only justification.
Point #2: Middle class Americans are getting screwed by the grip that corporate and the wealthy have on Washington, putting in place policies that have held middle America hostage while the wealthy obtain more of the nation’s wealth. This condition is worse than ever post WWII and unsustainable.
As I see it, Obama will stand against these injustices and more; McCain and your GOP have not so far.
You said: “I raise anecdotal points about what I have personally come across as a demographic trend unfavorable to Obama and my own sense for why.”
No Tyler, you said a lot more than that, which I pointed out in #37. Go back and read it again, and your #20 again too.
In this exchange we have a dramatic example of the partisan divide that separates us. Without waiting for the campaign to roll out, you get snide, condescending, even insulting, then I react. You don’t see it. So be it, unfortunately! But there is always the hope for change, on both sides!
This thread is about to die, so let’s see if this next comment breaths some life back into it……
The primary season is over. over time those who think with open minds will matriculate towards Obama…..
Those who’s minds are closed, will remain with McCain……..
It’s official. That is my prediction. Because of the economy’s effect on most Americans, closed minds now, will be open to new possibilities by November.
Perry, if/when you are ever prepared to give Obama anything close to the level of personal scrutiny as a would-be president as you just gave me here as a blog commenter, we’ll talk.
This is the wierdest choice in my lifetime; a man totally unqualified to be president (a lifetime ‘public servant,’ like most Dems, with no real-world experience whatsoever) vs. an angry egomaniac totally unqualified to be a Republican (well, maybe a Rockefeller Republican). Given Obama’s association with criminals, religious zealots, racists and terrorists, just about any Republican but McCain would win in a cakewalk. Unbelievable.
“The only way Obama could really CHANGE anything in Washington would be for him to offer to compromise with Republicans on a whole bunch of issues.”
Won’t be necessary to compromise much if Congressional elections are as one-sided as predicted by most knowledgeable observers on both sides.
Also, Rick, I don’t believe community activists are “public servants” in the sense you mean, just as I don’t think McCain’s military service should be twisted into some nonsense about “being on the public payroll since he was 18.”
“Given Obama’s association with criminals, religious zealots, racists and terrorists”
Many of us — we’ll find out in a few months how many — are far more worried about associations with PACs, lobbyists and special interests than the nonsense you’re peddling.
Obama. Scrutiny from the left? LOL. Onward with a liberal that ain’t got a prayer in November!
anon, if the majority of people thought as you, your candidate might have a chance.
But, they don’t.
More worried about the crooks in the White House, they are.
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