The National Republican Party has Yet to Recover
Aug 20th, 2009 by Timothy Pancoast
Pew just released their latest stats on the political climate and thing are still sliding south for President Obama and the Democrats. However, there is also a lesson to be learned for the Republicans. Their loss does not equate to your gain. (See graph below.) Republicans have a lot of work to do in order to gain ground. Even if the Democrats continue to fall from grace and loose big in the next couple of elections, I will consider it a failure on the Republican side if they don’t improve their favorability.
Nose dive versus flat line
There is plenty more fun data to pour over in the Pew article so give it a good read if you are into that kind of thing.
For anyone who follows the daily news, there probably was no surprise from Pew here. However, here is one that did surprise me:
Apparently folks have not cut back that much on spending since Dec 2008! Is this true?
Well my chart did not print. I am referring to the chart entitled: “Little Change in Personal Spending Cutbacks”
The Republicans, correctly, are highly critical of BO’s massive socialization programs. However, this fulfills only half of the equation necessary to formulate a successful ’10 bid to re-take Congress; it is also crucial to educate and inform the American people as to why the small-government, private alternative is better, and in their best interest.
Republicans need ideas, conservatism, and most importantly, a viable, aggressive and charismatic leader.
Right, like Sarah Palen! You folks really are in terrible shape!!
As a disgruntled Republican, I feel the party has left me on their value of being fiscally responsible and decided to push other agendas. If they don’t get back to fiscal conservatism, they will lose many in the party! However, they are still a better choice than the alternative!
The spending levels are interesting. Part of the reason why spending cutbacks may not have increased as much as usual since December is the simple fact that people did not spend as much last December as they might have for past Christmases.
Rick, your point about only getting half the equation right is so true, and it is an unfortunate pattern the party has established. When it comes to enacting things they can get the low taxes part, but fail on the lower spending part. Now when it comes to the election they get the part about fighting against the opponent, but forget about what they are fighting for.
I still consider the Republican party to be the better of the two choices, but only by a little, and I look forward to better options in future elections.
See that Republican upswing in September of last year? That coincides with when the GOP leaders in Congress started to oppose all the bailouts, etc. Then they lost their nerve. Most people can’t trust them now but had they continued to stand strong against the bailouts and stimulus packages I contend that they would have a much stronger support base.
The spike was the Palin bounce. It peaked right around the Couric interview.
DEConservative, I think you are right. I don’t think it would have won McCain the Presidency, but it would have left the Republican party with a much stronger foundation if they had stuck to principles on the stimulus package. That foundation is still here, but it can no longer fully support the RNC because the party moved off of it.
The Dem drop is the result of a relentless high-dollar PR campaign by FOX (Glenn Beck/teabaggers) and insurance companies (death panels, etc).
Politics 101: Negative campaigns do bring down your opponent but also bring you down too.
Dems out spent conservatives 5 to 1. It couldn’t be that they have bad ideas.
Noman, the graph shows that Democrats are falling. It shows that Republicans are flat lining. The RNC isn’t falling, it isn’t going anywhere at all. That tells me they probably have little to do with the fall of the Democrats.
This fall is not a partisan thing in my opinion. It is an issue of citizens versus politicians. The Democrats have accidentally made themselves up as targets. On the other hand, most of the Republicans have, so far, managed to stay out of the direct line of fire.
I know that within the 9-12 Delaware Patriots there is no interest in supporting the Republican party. We are opposed to health insurance reform that greatly expands the role and control of government. Not to mention Cap n Trade, and government bailouts, just to name a few more. The party and politicians that attach themselves to those policies are going to feel the fall out. That is what the poll shows, IMHO.
According to recent polling data, Americans who identify with conservatism outnumber those who identify with liberalism in all 50 states. Independents are already abandoning BO in great numbers. All the Republicans have to do is articulate conservative positions and run conservative candidates. November ’10 could be another ’94, if the Republicans wake-up, and quit listening to calls for ‘crossing the aisle’ and ‘moderation.’
The Republican Party has fallen into periods of irrelevance when issues are ignored and an arrogant “Establishment” seeks some generic victories while standing for little. There is a need for excitement, vigor something that will stir up the troops.
One can seek to have ‘activists’ do little more than serve as a chorus of political castratti singing hymns of praise to time-servers who think of themselves as latter-day aristocrats.
Some seek ‘cult of personality’ candidates as a source of salvation. Ike certainly was popular but did he have any lasting coattails? The “Eastern Establishment” got a well-deserved kick in the butt with the Goldwater nomination and the self-styled “Moderates” had the knives out for their party’s nominee and many paid the price. The alleged “debacle” brought new blood to the GOP and Reagan made a real difference and he did something Ike could not do: cut taxes. There was some backsliding with Bush I but he could never fully escape his ‘Establishment’ roots. Bush II was far better than his radical opponents.
Regrettably, many ‘moderates’ were able to foist McCain onto the ballot. Here was a man who often sought to curry favor with his fair-weather friends in the media by attacking fellow Republicans. He was the favorite Republican of many Democrats, especially when they could cross over in primary elections and muddy the water for the GOP. Yet when it truly counted, his ‘friends’ (at places such as the NYT) went for the ‘real thing’ when Obama was available.
McCain and his gang are among the more stupid members of the Senate. When the ‘nuclear option’ was suggested to allow President Bush to bypass the obstruction of some really great judicial nominees (including one Hispanic) they wimped out on the grounds that one day a Democrat might be in the White House and a Republican minority in the Senate might need to oppose some bad cabinet and judicial nominees. So what solid opposition was shown by Republicans to the thug-loving Eric Holder? What about Sotomayor?
A Republican party that supports officials who put expedience and trendiness ahead of principles is doomed to permanent minority status if not extinction. Remember the fate of the Whigs.