The Delaware Scene
Dec 16th, 2011 by David Anderson
Next year is, of course an election year. Nationally there is a lot of excitement with candidates surging and settling. Newt Gingrich winning the DE GOP delegate straw poll by one vote illustrates the national flux. In Delaware, the field is just now forming.
In the statewide offices, the Democrats are sitting pretty with 5 incumbents. The only weak incumbent is she who shall not be named today, KWS. Her lack of depth in office, allegations of corruption, and an unpopular stance on the merger that put her at odds with the popular AG is just the start of her problems. She is challenged in a 3 way primary. In a selfish sense (for the GOP), I hope she holds on with 39% of the vote, but in the good government sense, we have to endorse Mitch Crane in the primary and work for a strong GOP challenger who can win regardless of the outcome. I have spoken with two possible challengers on the GOP side, Ben Mobly and Jim Van Houghton. Mr. Mobly is making the rounds to all of the GOP events and looks very impressive. At this point that means very little, I have to learn more about him. Jim has a strong plan and a good background, but I haven’t seen him in months. That is not how you win elections in Delaware especially without lots of money. We will bring you more information next year on the 5 candidates from both parties.
U. S. Senate is a given. Tom Carper wins. That is what the conventional wisdom says, I heard that before. Mike Castle is the surest thing since …. John Carney has the governorship wrapped up. Kevin Wade will lose the minute he files. Sometimes the conventional wisdom is right, in fact more often than not. Still with this economy and the anger that Delaware voters have, counting any one out before the campaign has begun is truly laughable. Senator Carper is surely the favorite. The problem is that he seems to lack the spark and energy that we all know and love. He seems burned out and recent health issues do not help when added to the discouraging pace in the dysfunctional Senate. Mr. Wade is hungry. He wants it more not for himself, but he honestly sees himself on a mission to revive America. Insurgents like Joe Biden decades ago or Christine O’Donnell last year proved that a hungry insurgent versus a burned out incumbent is grounds for an upset. Will it happen? We will know more in September.
Carney v. Kovach. Mike Castle says Tom Kovach is viable. I agree. It will be interesting. Tom Kovach does not excite people like me, but he is popular in New Castle County where he has done a fine job standing up for taxpayers. Of course Rose Izzo could learn a lot from her 3% finish last time and upset him in the primary. I never count a campaign out before it starts, but if I had to bet the mortgage payment…. John Carney is a nice guy who has done next to nothing in his first two years. The good news for him is that he has done nothing to make anyone mad either. If President Obama again carries 60% of Delaware voters, I think that John Carney will be safe. 55% or less could produce an upset. If it gets closer than that, both Mr. Carper and Mr. Carney may be in trouble. They do not have great approval numbers.
Jack Markell does have great approval numbers. He may not give you the warm and fuzzy feeling, but he is working hard to better education and create jobs–at least in NCC. Right now, I think he really is a given, but Jeff Craig doesn’t. On paper, I can see several areas of potential weaknesses. I can see where he could be defeated, but it would take a nearly perfect campaign to do it. Jeff Craig has been around long enough to know the right people to run a great campaign and he has the money to seed his campaign. The questions are will he be able to get them, will he have the winning message or just try running on broiler plate GOP rhetoric which doesn’t work in Delaware, and will he be strong enough to make the party faithful believe enough to stop donating to Markell? If he can, he may make me eat my words. I would enjoy doing so.
Matt Denn is truly vulnerable, but right now there is no one challenging him. Predicting that outcome is easy, welcome to a second term. Where is Mike Protack when you need a candidate?
That is the statewide scene today. It will change and we will be here each step of the way.
Merry Christmas.
Denn vulnerable? How so? And right now, it’s only a 2 person primary for IC on the Democratic side. Vince White is a non-starter.
MJ, I agree as of today. That means very little in regards to September.
He seems burned out and recent health issues do not help when added to the discouraging pace in the dysfunctional Senate.
What are Carper’s health issues, pray tell?
There have certainly been rumors going around for a while, but unless you know something for a fact, should you be spreading them?
David
Your early wrap-up of 2012 possibilities is some good deductive reasoning, I think that the republican chances of victory in the statewide races depends on how the national scene shapes up. It will all flow downhill or uphill as the nationwide federal elections go.
I personally believe that republicans will have a great year nationwide and it will influence statewide elections in the same directions. People are tired to the “hope and change” policy of the current Obama Administration.
I know something for a fact. You should too. It has been reported upon. He used to run religiously, but frequent injuries demanded attention and cramped his style. He seemed to have one issue then another.
In spite of the rumors that you mentioned, I do not believe that he has any health issue which keeps him from doing his job. I was not implying such. I was mentioning my personal observations. I think his abilities are fine. I think the fire in his belly is not.
That could change, he could read this and get fired up.
So you’re talking about his foot and knee problems, nothing else? Those began back in 2007, and are hardly “recent.”
Still with this economy and the anger that Delaware voters have…
I’ve seen nothing to indicate that NCC is no longer SOS.