Mr. Donald Trump is in the driver’s seat, Senator Marco Rubio is rising, and Senator Ted Cruz is stuck in 3rd gear. Anyone who thinks it is over is the type of person that leaves a football game 3 minutes in or a baseball game after the first half of the first inning. 5% of the delegates are in. Trump has very high negatives but he has a good size block of voters around 35%. 25% is the low so far and 42% the high. The Nevada results are not surprising but Rubio is looking like a stronger second. PPP polling shows that Rubio wins a two way race. Donald Trump has an advantage, when will it be a two way race?
The fact is that right now, Rubio just needs to have strong finishes because winning matters in bragging rights. Delegates are proportional. Trump knows that bragging rights matter because they can feed a narrative in the intellectually faulty press.
Ted Cruz has some strong states on March 1. Kasich will again be in play. The money is starting to flow to Rubio but the quick turnaround from Saturday to Tuesday did not allow it to be a factor. Mr. Trump doesn’t need money. He is both a master of the earned media and is self funded.
On the Democratic side, Clinton will regain her momentum for a while. The press will inexplicably fawn over her even though she is basically avoiding them. Sanders can win 3 to 5 states on Super Tuesday. If he wins less than 3, he will be hurt, if he wins 5 of 12, he will be back in the news. Democrats have proportionality all the way through so regardless, he will be a factor. After that the Super delegates will decide the nomination.