The Aftermath of SC and NV

Mr. Donald Trump is in the driver’s seat, Senator Marco Rubio is rising, and Senator Ted Cruz is stuck in 3rd gear. Anyone who thinks it is over is the type of person that leaves a football game 3 minutes in or a baseball game after the first half of the first inning. 5% of the delegates are in. Trump has very high negatives but he has a good size block of voters around 35%. 25% is the low so far and 42% the high. The Nevada results are not surprising but Rubio is looking like a stronger second. PPP polling shows that Rubio wins a two way race. Donald Trump has an advantage, when will it be a two way race?

The fact is that right now, Rubio just needs to have strong finishes because winning matters in bragging rights. Delegates are proportional. Trump knows that bragging rights matter because they can feed a narrative in the intellectually faulty press.

Ted Cruz has some strong states on March 1. Kasich will again be in play. The money is starting to flow to Rubio but the quick turnaround from Saturday to Tuesday did not allow it to be a factor. Mr. Trump doesn’t need money. He is both a master of the earned media and is self funded.

On the Democratic side, Clinton will regain her momentum for a while. The press will inexplicably fawn over her even though she is basically avoiding them. Sanders can win 3 to 5 states on Super Tuesday. If he wins less than 3, he will be hurt, if he wins 5 of 12, he will be back in the news. Democrats have proportionality all the way through so regardless, he will be a factor. After that the Super delegates will decide the nomination.

4 thoughts on “The Aftermath of SC and NV”

  1. Trump carried college educated, high school educated, conservatives, moderates, evangelicals and Hispanics. He has won three primaries in a row.

    Rubio has won nothing. He won’t even win his own state. When Cruz drops-out, who do you think his supporters will go with, Trump or Rubio? Answer; Trump.

    In the beginning, the tone-deaf “establishment” was with Jeb! As he fell by the wayside, they switched to Kasich. Now, it’s Rubio. They are wasting their time; it is time to face reality.

    There is such a thing as momentum, and Trump has it. And momentum is a powerful thing; like a snowball rolling downhill, it grows.

    Hillary Clinton- and her collaborators in the press- are scared to death of Trump. This is because they know that he will not be intimidated or inhibited by faux indignation or fake standards of propriety. He will inspect Clinton’s extensive collection of baggage, and open it up for all of the nation to see, and her serial philanderer husband and his record of abuse will not be off-limits.

  2. Newton’s third law, as it applies to politics…….What did people think would happen?

  3. Rick: Your analysis depends on everyone thinking the same way you do. You know, the way President Perry would.

  4. Well, GOP turnout in the primaries is way up- thus, a lot of people must be “thinking the same way” as I am.

    If the GOP had listened to me and pushed Perry in the primaries rather than the liberal Massachusetts governor, Obama would have long been out of office.

    It’s funny how the “moderate” establishment is so afraid of Trump, particularly in light of the fact that they created him!

    Since ’68, conservative GOP presidential candidates win, and “reasonable” moderate weasels lose. Look it up.

    Bye-the-way, anyone who believes the media’s polls about Trump’s “low” Hispanic support numbers is very naive. Sure, the Hispanic political class hates Trump, but working Hispanics support him in fairly high numbers. A lot of Hispanics buit the buildings that Trump owns- and were paid a high salary for doing it. What has Hillary Clinton ever built, besides her bank account?

    Trump will garner a significantly higher percentage of Hispanics than did Romney.

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