Senate Democrats would rather not fund national security or the child health insurance program for states than give Trump a victory on the wall even to get citizenship for DACA recipients.
They choose DACA recepients over citizens by most counts, but DACA has not expired, it has nothing to do with the budget, but they blocked the appropriations bill for 3 months so they could have additional leverage. They could have had a deal, according to Pelosi, a year ago. They are close to one now, but they decided to make a show of shutting down the government in order to keep Republicans from getting credit for solving a problem that they would not when they controlled everything. It is not that they care first about the DACA recipients.
They are confident that they will have a wave election. They may do so, but there are a lot of reasons why that may not happen. The economy rising will make them a risky choice. Trumps numbers are rising and back to base level. Impeachment was voted on, forced by Democrats instead of focusing on the budget or the dreamers. 58% of voters reject the Democrats shut down strategy over DACA according to a recent Harvard poll. Impeachment and the economy will rally the GOP leaning voters. Democrats will be motivated by opposition to the free speaking Trump that many fear will do everything from roll back civil rights laws, to ban contraceptives, to jailing reporters, deport dreamers, or even start nuclear war. Of course, you wonder what he is waiting for if he is. He has done hundreds of executive actions, but nothing that most of those good people fear. Our Congresswoman thinks that we are at a water-hose moment in history, but the only things happening are good things. Still the 90% of negative press feeds the 42% who strongly oppose him.
I expect both sides to show up in 2018. The state elections last November did not see a loss in typical Republican votes, but they were not motivated to turn out higher while Democrats wanted to send a message. Republicans were so flushed with victory that they started fighting each other. The RINO vs the purists wars restarted then came AL. Bannon was expelled from power. Republicans had new clarity. Money is flowing in from average working people to the GOP in numbers that swamp the Democrats. Rank and file Republicans are starting to focus on protecting everything that they worked for from 2000. They have fear of loss. This could be 2002 where Republicans gained in spite of predictions of being wiped out or it could be a 2010 in reverse and a wipeout. I tend to think it will be in between. What will determine it will be how the swing voters respond. Will they vote their economic interests or their discomfort with Mr. Trump’s style? Democrats will try to put President Trump on the metaphorical ballot, but voters like the Republicans they have voted for who will be on the ballot. Results have been positive. The latest stunt makes Democrats look risky and unready to govern. NJ and CA sanctuary state makes them look focused on things that do not help our citizens, which was why President Trump is in office. It is possible that even safe seats like Carper’s may now be in play.
2018 will comedown to 4 things style vs. substance, base turnouts, the economy and the unknown factors of investigations, possible disasters, and foreign drama. If anyone tells you that they know with certainty, either do not believe them or believe them and copy their lottery numbers.