Reid in trouble
Sep 21st, 2009 by David Anderson
Fortunately for Democrats the elections are next year. Harry Reid is in deep trouble politically. He is trailing whatever Republican who is so far interested in running against him. More relevant to the election next year is that he has just 29% of Nevada voters Strongly Favor the congressional health care plan while 46% are Strongly Opposed. His own numbers are 20% strongly favor him while 42% strongly oppose him. Those numbers are going to be hard to overcome. Gov. Corzine has a similar problem. If he loses by a blowout, it will send shivers down the spine of Democrats similarly situated such as Chris Dodd, Harry Reid, and others.
I have no idea what the landscape will be like next year. Look how different this year is from last. What I do know is that Republicans can really do something if they stop playing prevent defense and start trying to score with the people.
You know that next year voters will have long forgotten.
Even just this year, we did polling in parking lots for the Republicans, and the results of the elections were WAY different that the polls seemed to indicate.
People are extremely bad at voting people out, it would seem.
Parking lot polls are not scientific. Rasmussen predicted the last several elections within tenths of a point. When you poll in a parking lot you may not get registered voters in the district. You may get people who are richer or poorer than average. You may get age skews or ethnic skews. You don’t necessarily get a religious balance.
I think this subject along with the economy will be very important.
http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/Assessment_Redacted_092109.pdf?hpid=topnews
Mike Protack
84 house Dems are in districts that went for Bush or McCain.
What the hard left forgets is the Democrats won the majority by electing Blue Dogs.
Somehow I simply cannot imagine the country returning to power a party that says no to healthcare, even unwilling to compromise to get healthcare insurance reform actuated.
It is quite obvious that no matter what Obama and the Dems do to accommodate Repub ideas, the Repubs will overwhelmingly vote against it.
Current Repubs do not understand the language of compromise. If this continues, if the Repub strategy is to see Obama fail, I don’t see much gain for them next year, with the exception of certain isolated cases like the mentioned AZ and NJ, perhaps several more.
Don’t be buoyed by all the noise of your fringe, as most voters understand very well what got us to where we are, which Obama and the Dems obviously are striving to improve.
BO’s economic policies are doomed to fail; we are trillions in debt, and it grows daily. The Republicans created a perfect storm, with their fiscal irresponsibility, a foolish war strategy, and petty corruption. Then, they ran an unelectable candidate; virtually any Socialist-Democrat was a shoo-in last November.
Now, reality is setting-in. The middle-of-the-roaders, who put BO and the Congressional majority in office, are now suffering a bad case of buyers’ remorse. This is because the Socialist-Democrats are radical statists, and your average American is aghast at the prospect of what BO’s agenda really is. BO’s numbers will fall, and continue to fall. What seemed impossible a few months ago now seems quite likely- tremendous Republican gains in Congress and governorships.
Creation out of destruction.
Rick, a year before the 2006 election and the year before the 2008 election you made the same basic prediction about Repub victories. Your track record is not good. The reason, you undervalue the impact of the Dem message.
In other words, your “Social-Democratic” labeling does not resonate. You are hoping to prop up a capitalism so corrupt that Wall Street trying to repeat the same failed processes while paying the same outrageous salaries and bonuses. It’s obvious!
Therefore, economic reality will be the bottom line for voters in 2010. If the Repubs continue their ideology of “no” and Wall Streeters do not reform themselves, while the Dems are perceived as trying to fix things, the Repubs just plain cannot win.
Plenty of ifs between now and then, especially when you look at the national picture. There are a lot less if’s for Senator Reid though. I would like to see a different Senate Majority Leader after the 2010 election and I think there is a reasonable chance of that happening.
Tim, on Senator Reid, we agree. He is not a good leader, and has potential corruption problems of his own. I don’t think he will be reelected.
“…the year before the 2008 election you made the same basic prediction about Repub victories…”
The day McCain was nominated, I picked BO on WGMD. McCain simply couldn’t win.
I was wrong about Allen and Santorum, true. Of course, in Allen’s case, how could I have predicted the ‘makaka’ gaffe, which did him in, thanks to the incessant replay by Socialist-Democrat sycophants in the ‘mainstream’ media.
In any case, while Nov. ’10 is quite a ways off, polls show that middle America is tiring of BO and his fellow Marxists in Congress- quickly.