New Hampshire Aftermath

Donald J Trump and Bernie Sanders dominated NH as expected.What is interesting is that the absurd press bashing of Rubio had an effect reversing his momentum but it did not do permanent damage. Bush and Kasich would have joined Christie in being out. Now we have Cruz in third, Kasich who is one of the best governors in America, reinvigorated with a solid second place finish, Bush limping forward and Rubio reeling but moving forward tied with Bush. For the first time in NH history 5 candidates beat the 10% mark so far. If Rubio does finish 400 to 1000 votes behind Bush–he is a few hundred behind now, that makes no difference in electoral reality and a little more he beats Cruz. They get the same delegates. It does make a difference in political reality. It freezes the race. A host of Bush backers had pledged to move to Rubio if he finished ahead of Bush. Now they will freeze until something definitive happens. The not Trump vote was 66%. This outcome strengthens Mr. Trump. Out of Iowa and New Hampshire are 5 strong candidates not 3 as it was shaping up. The race just got a whole lot more interesting. Cruz has a strong ground game in South Carolina.

Mr. Trump had a solid victory speech. Senator Sanders not so much. Secretary Clinton raised the stakes for both Nevada and South Carolina. She must have confidence in her caucus operation in Nevada where she was slaughtered 8 years ago. Sanders should focus there next.

As for the Democratic side, Clinton getting the letter that the FBI is officially investigating her server a day before the primary did not help. She was gong to lose, but she lost by 20 points. She lost 92 to 6 among voters who valued honesty and something like 85 to 11 among voters who looked for someone who cared about them. That seems perceptive. She won something like 7 to 1 among voters who valued electability. Rubio also won electability voters. NH voters valued other factors. That is a mistake they will have to live with. Of course being under a serious criminal investigation is not a resume builder for electability on the Democratic side. I bet people are wishing for Biden. On to Nevada and South Carolina.

11 thoughts on “New Hampshire Aftermath”

  1. Most knowledgeable people consider Rubio finished. Not saying it’s true, but this apparently hit hard among the donor class.

  2. Good than he is in strong condition. Traditional wisdom has been exactly wrong every time in this race.

  3. If 66% of the vote was anti-Trump, why do you think it helps Trump to have fewer anti-Trump candidates in the race? That is, the 66% of the vote that may b anti-Trump won’t be divided among so many candidates.

    Unfortunately, the Republican candidates are acting like a bucket of crabs who won’t let any of the crabs crawl out of the bucket.

  4. Most knowledgeable people consider Rubio finished. Not sayin it’s true…

    Perhaps that’s because you’re not knowledgeable.

  5. Listening to the Democrat debate, it is clear that they are positioning themselves to own the law enforcement debate.
    This will not only solidify the African American vote with the highly influential “Black Lives Matter” movement, but also a large percentage of the “unaffiliated”, undecided, and Libertarians.(remember that you don’t just get the African American vote when you appeal to African Americans)

    The Republican nominee cannot allow the Democrats to own the law enforcement debate and claim it as their platform. This worries me some because Trump is very pro law enforcement…..he’s a cop guy. Hopefully his paid flunkies know the importance of this positioning early on.

  6. Just because the Democrats are doing it doesn’t make it a smart political play. The people of America are pro police. Most policy debates have at least two sides with constituents to represent on one side or the other. It is fine to build a coalition with a motivated group, but it is a bad idea to abandon the majority side to fight over the minority side. The majority of Blacks are pro police officers but anti abuse of power.

    The key is not abandoning the police. It is condemning police abuses. Don’t support the 1 percent that is a problem, but double down on the 99%. Sure you may not get the 35% of black voters who are Black Lives Matter supporters, but you unite our side while dividing their side. If you don’t recognize some are not fit for duty, you do the opposite. You alienate Libertarian and some fair minded Conservative and moderate voters.

  7. Jonathan, I think that only 40% of the Republican party is anti Trump. I think 25% is in play. They’re not sold on him. If they think he is inevitable, they will fall behind him. If they are giving an alternative they like better or think is stronger they would not.

  8. Listening to the Democrat debate, it is clear that they are positioning themselves to own the law enforcement debate.
    This will not only solidify the African American vote with the highly influential “Black Lives Matter” movement, but also a large percentage of the “unaffiliated”, undecided….

    Most Americans are not anti-cop. Neither Obama, Sanders or Hillary have mentioned any of the cops shot-down in cold blood just because they’re wearing a uniform.

    This may play well in the SC primary- in the general election, they will get hammered. “Unaffiliated” voters- especially blue-collar workers- simply will not support a cop hater candidate.

  9. Who said anything about being a “cop hater”? Trump just has to not alienate African Americans. I think Trump has a chance to win a large percentage of the black vote. I think a lot of African Americans are just waiting to see how it plays out.

    In general, there is an overreach of law enforcement in this country. I’m not specifically talking about managing crime in the inner city, but rather the overall increased intrusive and militarized tactics of law enforcement, particularly in the evolution of Homeland Security, which was originally just supposed to fight terrorism, but now is pretty much involved in, if not fully controlling, most aspects of law enforcement.

  10. @fightingbluehen
    The reason for the severe overreach of police power is simply because they are taught to believe that they are not just police, but instead they are the elite of Americans and ordinary people don’t count. They are taught military tactics, and that they are invulnerable to lawsuits by citizens they have brutalized, shot or killed. Police forces and other police, protect their own, even from murder, rape or brutality.
    Many police are great people but when it comes to protecting their own, they fall right in with the rest because they would be ostracized and outcasts among their own.

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