Time to look ahead to the trends which will shape the New Year and beyond. Between now and 2020 these trends will change our lives.
The price of 3D printing will drop and cottage industries will become a new trend. It may not be the Star Trek replicator, but we will start producing a surprising amount at home. In medicine, we will see a real and effective “universal” flu vaccine go to trials and soon replace the barely effective strain based vaccine.
Gene Editing will emerge sometime between 2018 and 2020. Quiet trials have produced intriguing results. Someone will use it to eliminate a genetic disease and someone else will experiment in using it in pigs to produce donor organs for people. The GMO crowd will go into full freak out mode. We will start an ethical debate about the lines of designer people. Why not turn off the aging gene? Why not make us smarter and not just healthier?
The economy will grow greater than 3%, around double the rate of the past 7 years. Interest rates will rise 1%. Unemployment U-6 will fall to the lowest level in many years.
Thanks to the future’s market, Bitcoin will collapse, but it will recover some of that loss and other crypto currencies will begin to emerge in mainstream popularity creating the first threat to fiat money since the restrictions on gold in the 1930’s.
Due to the economy, the “Blue Tide” some are predicting will not materialize. Whether Democrats or Republicans control the Congress is a complete unknown, but the prosperity experienced will offset the negative press.
ISIS is dying, but it will not go out quietly. Expect a call for a wave of terror attacks in the U. S. Africa, and Europe. Will they be successful? Time will tell.
Delaware will continue to lag the national economy. Revenue will be up less than 2% which will cause consternation in forming a state budget. There will be no new programs, Medicaid and state employee healthcare will absorb most of the money. There will be little appetite for tax increases this year, but progressives will propose an income tax hike on the “rich” making over 250K if any hiccups occur.
In Maryland, Governor Erhlich was confident about his high approval ratings, but still loss due to a blue tide in Maryland. Governor Larry Hogan has been working hard to build an organization to overcome that problem. Look for Speaker Michael Busch to attempt to throw roadblocks in the way of Hogan. Hogan will be reelected. The Hogan race will be the one to watch. If Hogan wins big, Republicans will have a good night. If he loses, there well may be a “blue tide”.
Those are predictions, what are yours?