Is Corzine Doomed?
Jun 4th, 2009 by David Anderson
A quarter of Democrats cast protest votes against Governor Corzine in a lower than normal turnout primary.
U. S. Attorney Christi is now over 51% in the latest Rasmussen poll.
I believe that Governor Corzine can come back to win the race, but I believe that he will not. An incumbent who has approval numbers around 40% is in trouble at this point in a campaign. The strongly disapprove vs. strongly approve numbers are even more important in an off year election because they measure the people who will absolutely vote. Only 14% strongly approve and 37% strongly disapprove. That 23% gap won’t be bought off by 60 million in advertising. The majority have already decided they do not like Corzine. His only hope is that they can’t see Christie as a credible governor.
The GOP can lose this race. The first hurdle will be the choice for Lt. Governor. NJ finally decided that a Lt. Governor is a good idea. This will be the first race where NJ will have a ticket. Mr. Christi should make a choice which can gain the approval of Mayor Steve Lonegan. His opponent would be a good pick. He has credibility as a long time opponent of the tax and spend regime. He has a success electoral history and both a geological and philosophical base of support. It would allow Christie to portray this as a unity ticket and position himself in the center without losing conservative support. Brent Schundler would be an even stronger choice in some ways. He has a strong base of support with minorities in Jersey City. Christie pulling 25% of that group could seal the fate of the race. A credible moderate who would not alienate conservatives such as Senator Diane Allen or Senator Tom Kaine Jr. could blunt media attempts to paint Christi as right wing, however he would then have to campaign on more conservative themes to keep the party energized. Anyone to the left of Diane Allen would be one of the ways to lose.
The second hurdle is the mentality of some in the GOP who have a defeatist mentality. Having your clock cleaned two elections in a row can do that. They were so excited about Tom Kaine Jr. having a competitive race for U. S. Senate and then a 4 point lead, but losing in 2006 (which was a far different year). They are also scared by the fact Corzine is going to outspend Christie two or three to one without batting a checkbook cover. They say focus on VA and win it. I say we are a national party. We should be able to handle two states. We don’t need to match Corzine. We just need to spend $15,000,000 and let Christie take the $11,000,000 in public funding. Just get his message out. New Coke, Michael Huffington, and other campaigns in both business and politics show that you can spend as much money as you want if people already find the messenger not credible. A win or even a close lose in NJ would send an important message. It would say the Republican party is ready to fight every where. If the party focuses solely on its base in Virginia, then we will be on the defensive in 2010 even if we win. Fundraising will be harder and we will have to focus on keeping seats instead of making the Democrats be on the defensive. Winning New Jersey and Virginia will open the floodgates as nervous business people will be assured that the Republican party is still a national counterweight contrary to media accounts.
The third hurdle is the fact that a lot of the conservatives in New Jersey moved to Florida and elsewhere. The electorate is a little more liberal than 10 years ago. This is countered by the fact that they are fed up. Almost half of New Jersey voters are Independents and they are fairly sophisticated. They will switch back and forth between the parties if given a reason to do so.
The fourth hurdle is the fact that Mr. Christie has never run for anything. He is a new candidate and after 5 months he still does not have a complete plan. When he sharpens his message and has an alternative plan, he will then be able to pass the final test of being a credible alternative.
The primary actually benefited Mr. Christie. It allowed some of the charges that Governor Corzine would have unleashed later to be aired earlier as the Governor could not wait to start attacking. Mr. Lonegan and Mr. Corzine spent most of their time explaining to the press and the public why Mr. Corzine is the wrong man for the job. They drove his negatives into the stratosphere. The last 6 months focused the media on the failings of the current administration. It was the same effect as the two year Democrat Presidential primary had on the Bush ratings. It also gave Mr. Christie experience on how to campaign.
My prediction is that Mr. Christie will jump the hurdles and become Governor Christie. I say let’s get the Delaware GOP involved. It will help us see how to win in a blue state and it could be very handy to have Governor Christie coming by to raise money for us next year.
Corzine looks like a moron for giving up that comfy US Senate seat he held.
Just think, he could have been riding to the rescue right now and saved 45 million dollars. No one could have knocked him out of that senate seat. His current job approval is even worse than his favorability. 41% are strongly dissatisfied.
Jersey Democrats are in such a state that about the only Democrat who still has favorable ratings is Bill Bradley.