Independents Disenfranchised by Democrats
Nov 11th, 2009 by David Anderson
Republicans have a lead on the generic ballot for Congress in the latest Gallup Poll. What you may not know is that Republicans have a 22 point lead among Independents. The trend among likely voters is now showing up in this poll of registered voters. Voters are moving away from Democrats the more they push Government Heavy Health Care Reform and so called Climate Change legislation.
The overall results would predict a likely strong Republican showing if the House elections were held today. Though the registered-voter results reported here speak to the preferences of all eligible voters, voter turnout is crucial in determining the final outcome of midterm elections. Gallup will not begin to model likely turnout until much closer to the 2010 elections, but given that Republicans usually have a turnout advantage, if normal turnout patterns prevail in the coming election, prospects for a good Democratic showing appear slim. Of course, the elections are still nearly 12 months away and conditions could shift back in the Democrats’ favor over this time.
Since Gallup regularly began using the generic ballot to measure registered voters’ preferences for the House of Representatives in 1950, it has been rare for Republicans to have an advantage over Democrats. This is likely because more Americans usually identify as Democrats than as Republicans, but Republicans can offset this typical Democratic advantage in preferences with greater turnout on Election Day. Most of the prior Republican registered-voter leads on the generic ballot in Gallup polling occurred in 1994 and 2002, two strong years for the GOP.
This change is significant. Until now the Democrats had been experiencing a decline, yet the Republicans had flatlined. That meant that the citizens were leaving the Democrat party to go independent, not Republican. Now that has changed and it appears that the GOP may have found some sucess in convincing the newly independent that the Republican Party is a viable alternative.
REPUDIATION!!!