How do you count to 5
Jan 17th, 2010 by David Anderson
Updated
The Republican Party needs a net gain of at least 4 seats in the Delaware House of Representatives. We have three Representatives retiring and two of those seats will be favorably disposed to keep a Republican in this environment. Representative Oberle’s retirement will be a gain for the Democrats unless the environment really sours for America’s oldest party. Republicans have to count to 5 in order to be relevant. Rule one, go after the 6 freshman. There are rumors that Brad Bennett’s strong showing last year and conservative voting record may get him a pass. I reject that in the strongest terms. I like the representative a lot. If he wants to change parties, I welcome him. Absent that, this is for the survival of the two party state. We are crazy if we concede a winnable district when the survival of the party is at stake.
My first post will focus on Kent County because it offers the outside possibility of 3 pick ups and has one open seat.
I would suggest Charles “Skip” Venable. He started late and still gave Brad’s father a race to remember. He was a tea party type of guy before the movement existed. He would draw excitement and volunteers from all across the state. He would be a winner. Former city councilman Bill Hare would be fine third choice. My favorite first choice is not planning to run. He would need to be drafted. Businessman Ray Clatworthy could win in a heart beat. He beat Joe Biden in his home district and home county. It would put him back in the public spot light and give him a platform for an alternative governing strategy. The next step would be a campaign for governor in 2012 or Senator.
The 29th district meeting will give us a picture of the campaign. A vigorous airing of potential candidates’ cases followed by fair vote in February, could avoid a primary, but even if it does not, it will make the primary a productive outlet not a destructive one. So far three candidates are interested, add Glenn Howell to the list published by Tennessee.
The 31st district is a tough one for Republicans. President Obama won it by 1700 votes, but the good news is that the Rep. race was won by Rep. Scott with only a 300 vote margin. There are a lot of pontential ticket spliters and in an off year election the numbers seem even money for the right candidate. We will continue writing about Ron Poliquin and Ron Smith in the future.
The 33rd district is one that Republicans should win. I would say draft Ulysses Grant. Harold Peterman is a possiblity as well. There are several other possible candidates. I don’t think any of them are quite as strong as Mr. Grant. (Mr. Grant recently passed over. He was a great man. My prayers go out to the family.) Sadly it appears that his obituary was not carried in the Dover paper. I do have a strong alternative candidate who was former military and is well involved in the local community. Col. Eugenia (Gene)Thornton (retired) is popular and connected to the community. She is not just popular with veterans groups for her advocacy of Military Retiree Pay Tax Initiative, but was also an important ally of Eric Buckson when most of us paid no attention to him.
The 28th district will take some research for me. The strongest candidates either have some potential issues or have moved. Mayor Pugh would be strong, but he has some baggage from his tenure. Mayor Shaffer would be a disaster, if he had quit after two terms, he would have been a potential favorite in some circles. Christine Malek would be a great candidate with 9 months to campaign. I am more inclined to find someone in the agricultural community with some Dover ties. I think the best option is to get someone from the patriot/tea party movement. If Rep. Carson is to be upset in this Democratic district, it will be someone who is not a typical Republican. It will be an independent minded person who has a populous pause. The registration of this district is not just tilted to the Democrats. It is full board in their favor. The district is a populist conservative one like some in Sussex county. The growth areas and the eastern Dover areas are anti-tax. Rep. Carson is now a tax hiker. The district is socially conservative. The school districts have a lot of local pride. The school district sports are an important part of local life. The district is not one that would be loving the Democrat plan for consolidation of school districts at the expense of local control. It seems like the districts in the Jacksonian belt that will be in play this year nationally. The good news is that the Democrats would not think it to in play even with a candidate. Republicans would miss an opportunity to pick up a sleeper by missing this district.
New Castle and Sussex will have to wait. I may have my collaborators take a county.
David,
Are you really advocating the the GOP do what the Democrats have always been acused of…U.S. Grant passed away earlier this year…I don’t think we need him to run this year.
MH
I also believe that Mr. Foltz now resides in the 31st District.
MH
We should have every office filled with candidate(s) by now.
No surrender.
Mike Protack
Unfortunately, Mr. Grant passed away fairly recently.
The 29th district will be an interesting watch. What are everyone’s thoughts?
Earlier this year? Thanks for the information. My condolences to his family.