Clinton supporters show independent streak; increase likelihood both candidates will court them
Jun 9th, 2008 by JohnFeroce
Hillary’s supporters are acting like voters who understand the power they hold and the respect of an earned vote. The Pied Piper seems to have a tougher task on his hands with former Clinton backers.
“A newly released CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll found that if Obama does not select Clinton as his running mate, 22 percent of her supporters would stay home this fall — and another 17 percent would vote for McCain.”
“That’s just one estimate of the ‘Clinton factor,’ and it may not be an accurate predictor since it piles several hypotheticals on top of each other and asks people to guess their state of mind five months from now,” said Keating Holland, CNN’s polling director.
“Nonetheless, it does indicate that unmotivated Clinton supporters may be a bigger risk to Obama than defections from the Clinton camp to McCain.”
- Sen. John McCain’s campaign reaches out to Sen. Hillary Clinton’s supporters
- Some Clinton voters say they’ll pick McCain over Sen. Barack Obama
- Clinton backers express support for McCain on her Web site
- Obama advisers say they think Democrats will unite around senator from Illinois
John, your partisan wishful thinking has been wrong every time, this time being no exception.
Now that the Rasmussen poll no longer supports your wishes, you no longer cite them! Well then let me fill in for you:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history
As you can see, Obama leads McCain 50-44.
For good measure, Gallop has Obama over McCain, 48-42.
That said, it is still too early in the campaign to rely on the polls. There are bound to be more Hillary supporters who come into the fold. Few Dems/Independents/moderate Repubs would pick McCain over Obama, considering McCain’s unabashed 95% pro-Bush voting record, his unwillingness to support a pro-GI Bill for veterans of the Iraq War, his support for an unending war in Iraq, his gas tax gimmick, and so on.
Truly, it remains too early because neither candidate has rolled out his full campaign platform nor defended it in debate.
Finally, the nasty 527′s have yet to start their nasty, demeaning “swift boating”. I don’t think this will work against Obama for most voters, as he has already shown himself to be up to it, for example his wonderful speech on race relations vis a vis Reverend Wright’s untoward comments from the pulpit.
I find it quite interesting that even the evangelicals are beginning to swing Obama’s way, as per comments by Tony Perkins and David Ko last night on Hardball.
McCain continues to appear to me to be a weak candidate, out of touch with the needs of the American people, as is his mentor George W Bush. He has five months to prove otherwise. I don’t think he can do it, not in today’s political climate!
John: How do you view the likelihood that Congress will become bluer, no matter who wins the White House? What goals will conservatives have for a McCain administration with this in mind?
You don’t have to answer, obviously, but I thought it might jog you out of your anti-Obama obsession.
My personal thought is that the voters will turn out en masse regardless of demographic. In addition, I believe that the American people will decide they do not want more government intrustion into their lives, as they understand that the same system that manages the street out in front of their homes is the system that ceaselessly wants to manage ever more aspects of their lives.
How someone can look at the job the DOTransportation/DOEducation/DOEnergy/IRS/etc (and for the anti-Iraq crowd the CIA/FBI/NSA/etc) departments have done with everything given to them and then say “Well, I think they will do a much better job with my healthcare!” is beyond me.
That reason if none other, is the main reason that I think Americans will vote in droves and vote for candidates that do not want more government intrusion into our lives.
But hey, my crystal ball is partly cloudy today.
All of the importance these voters placed on this election, and they’re just going to stay home? To nurse a grudge if Obama doesn’t pick Hilllary for veep?? I don’t know about that. And as several folks have said, there’s five months’ worth of press sparring, debating and 527-ing for them to make up their minds.
Unfortunately Chrisitian, I am not as optimistic. Although a very finite sample. You only have to read the blind dribble on this site to realize that many Americans have been duped into believing the government is god and George Bush and the republicans are satan propaganda. Dems will roll in November.
I believe Congressional candidates on the Republican side will rush to McCain’s side going into the fall while the Dems run away from Obama.
“Oklahoma Dem won’t endorse Obama”
“Rep. Dan Boren, Oklahoma’s lone Democrat in Congress, told the Associated Press Obama is “the most liberal senator,” and said he has to listen to the wishes of his own constituents.”
“Boren’s comments come a day after Florida Democratic Rep. Tim Mahoney also said he has no plans to make a formal endorsement.”
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/06/10/oklahoma-dem-wont-endorse-obama/
To think Democratic Congressional pick ups are a foregone conclusion is wishful thinking. If Hillary voters stay home because of the Obama factor, it will impact the Democratic candidates for Congress further down on the ticket.
The GOP should run a simple ad against Democratic candidates asking the following question -
“Are you better off today then you were in 2006?”
Name one thing a Democratic Congress has accomplished? One.
Looks like a war to me.
I don’t know where this overconfidence on the D side comes from:
A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the White House.
“As of Tuesday — and it’s early — there are about 194 votes from either leaning or safe Republican states, and 190 from leaning or safe Democrat states.”
That’s 154 toss up votes folks.
Map: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/10/electoral.map/index.html#cnnSTCOther1
Story:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/10/map.explainer/index.html
John: Oh well, I tried to see if you have a brain. Turns out the scarecrow had more.
I’m not here to argue with Republican cheerleaders. “I believe Congressional candidates on the Republican side will rush to McCain’s side going into the fall while the Dems run away from Obama” is, once again, not analysis. It’s a little kid’s Christmas wish. If you thought for oh, one second, you’d really have to be a dreadful politician to decide you want nothing to do with a guy who can fill stadiums. You cherry pick facts with every post. You’re not even a good shill.
“To think Democratic Congressional pick ups are a foregone conclusion is wishful thinking. If Hillary voters stay home because of the Obama factor, it will impact the Democratic candidates for Congress further down on the ticket.”
And if peas grew out my ears I wouldn’t have to buy them at the supermarket anymore. Again, wishing instead of analyzing. Discussion is pointless.
Bring back Dave.
The Democratic Congress has been at the mercy of GOP filibuster and the veto override, John, and you know it!
The rest of yours and Chris’s GOP optimism is speculation based on nothing more than opinion. OK, your privilege to opine. But let’s examine the evidence. On that, I can’t agree with you, because of the failed Bush record that McCain has supported 95%, and because of the current state of that record ==> dismal! 27% approval for Bush is an all time low. Thus, the American voter knows this record full well, and will not give the GOP and McCain another chance at this time.
Take note: Gasoline has gone from $1.50 to $4.00 during Bush’s two terms. You mean to tell me that the voters are going to overlook this catastrophe? I don’t think so!
And how is McCain going to get away with his vote to deny returning Iraq War vets a GI Bill? This is support of the troops? This is patriotic? Come on!!!
You cite two Dems, Boren and Mahoney, and attempt to make a case for a trend. Hardly! Unconvincing!!
You people are really stretching in desperation, and so soon too, before either the Obama or McCain campaigns have rolled out.
Finally, the GOP Congressional record has been truly pathetic during Cheney/Bush: six years of thoughtless lock-step, and two years of obstruction. This is a record to be proud of? This is a record that McCain can run on?
You folks would do well to consider a vote for change, or is your partisanship so rigid as to mask out critical thinking?
There’s really no sense in discussing this issue at this point. Hillary supporters who plan to vote for McCain are met by typically dismissive Obama supporters who say that we just have hurt feelings and we’ll get over it by November. Only time will tell. I can only speak for myself and I can tell you unequivically that I am just as determined to vote for McCain as I was two weeks ago. In fact, every time I hear someone tell me I’ll fall in line by November, it reminds me of exactly what disgusted me most about Obama’s campaign and supporters. Again, that’s just me. Maybe I’m completely alone.
Lots of Hillary voters will vote for Obama, and some won’t. It’s not about you, unless those supporters are saying, “Don’t worry, Dominique will come around.”
Apart from the fact that it is directed at ‘Hillary supporters’, which would include me, it actually has been said about me in another blog (DWA, I think). I believe it was followed by something along the lines of ‘she just likes to be an asshole’ because that’s the kind of discourse one can expect in the blogosphere.
Perry,
I haven’t checked for myself in a small while, but Bush’s “approval rating” was something like 35~ recently. Certainly not stellar performance, but definitely up from it’s lows.
I would be interested to compare that with Pelosi and her cronies infamous “First 100 hours”…
Christian, Pelosi was at the top of her game then and has gone downhill since. The problem is that Pelosi is not the face of the Democrat party in America, Bush was and to many people still is. I would be more comfortable in their position than ours. The truth is the challenge we face may end up winning it for us. It has shaken us out of our complacency and the Democrats have fallen into complacency. I am very optimistic.
yawn, non story…but sure try to trumpet the same thing the Liberul Media you dispise is doing. 4 days after her concession speach and as would be predicted the only hope you have of winning rests on racists not voting for the black guy.
oh and the number of voters potentially going to vote for McCain is like 12%….wow, that should offset the loss when Bob Barr strips votes from McCain right?
Maybe you should talk about that guy instead of the dems…
I had such hope when Nancy Pelosi took the reigns. What a disappointment she and Harry Reid have been. While it’s easy to hide behind the threat of a veto and/or GOP filibuster, there was no reason they couldn’t have at least tried to do something about the war – or anything, for that matter. Instead, they’ve quietly rolled over on everything Bush has wanted over the past two years. Had the tables been turned, the Republicans would at least have been screaming into the cameras attempting to shame the Dems into supporting their legislation. The Dems seem to have some difficulty with coalescing. The Republicans, on the other hand, always seem to find a way to circle the wagons and get their members onboard to get things done. The problem lies in the things they choose to get done. The Dems seem to be the party of ideas, the Republicans seem to be the party of action. If only the Dems could organize like the Republicans or the Republicans would move forward with Dem ideas…
And… didn’t the McCain campaign just add Arizona to its list of possible swing states? Seems they think he should be polling higher in his home state. Just saying…
I’m sensing some Obama love coming from the GOP.
Oh, and still waiting for that “McCain is the best candidate because…” post.
Christian: This quote from Dominique’s post explains the problem with your line of “reasoning”:
“Instead, [Pelosi and Reid have] quietly rolled over on everything Bush has wanted over the past two years.”
Democrats’ dissatisfaction with Congress isn’t that it’s leftist; it’s certainly not the absurd GOP talking point about not getting anything done, as anyone who has paid attention knows this Congress has already set a record for invoking the filibuster. Democrats like Dominique — and remember, she’s among those who promise to vote for McCain — are upset because Democratic electeds HAVEN’T DONE ENOUGH
Christian: This quote from Dominique’s post explains the problem with your line of “reasoning”:
“Instead, [Pelosi and Reid have] quietly rolled over on everything Bush has wanted over the past two years.”
Democrats’ dissatisfaction with Congress isn’t that it’s leftist; it’s certainly not the absurd GOP talking point about not getting anything done, as anyone who has paid attention knows this Congress has already set a record for invoking the filibuster. Democrats like Dominique — and remember, she’s among those who promise to vote for McCain — are upset because Democratic electeds HAVEN’T DONE ENOUGH
Somebody needs to get me some kool-aid as I just don’t see it. Let me try this example again, but this time I’ll get more specific.
One of you anti-Iraq guys/gals out there, somebody who is totally against going into Iraq in the first place, and wants us to pull our collective arses out of there immediately. Somebody who thinks every single day out there has been an incredibly horrible mistake and we need to get out in a hurry. One who feels that the morons in the White House ignored all of the obvious signs, and ignored the wishes of the American people, and ignored all of the other countries wishes to stay out of Iraq.
Basically I want someone to reply who is pissed off that their government could ignore all that and push their own particular agenda ,regardless of the logical arguments, regardless of the signs, regardless of their citizens wishes, regardless of their allies wishes, regardless of America’s financial situation.
And then I want that person to think of that EXACT SAME government being in charge of their children’s health.
It wouldn’t be the exact same government, moron. Bush is leaving office.
it would be the exact same government that runs social security and medicare, both of which get high ratings from clients. Ignore that fact, too. I can see you spent most of your time from 14 to 19 outside rather than studying anything in those musty old school buildings.
DEMs are getting orgainized and fired up. MoveOn.org polled it’s membership and once Obama came up the favorite, the work began. The internet has been where the savy DEMs are making money and building support with the help of the lefty blogs like Kos, FDL, and Eschton endorsing ActBlue candidate and weeding out the Blue Dog DEMs. Here in Delaware the Progressive DEMs are a feisty bunch who intend to make a difference and have made some decent headway.
Congress is still mucked up by incumbency and lobbying compromise no matter which side of the aisle you look to.
I wish I had your faith, Nancy.
Al Mascitti,
It seems that when it gets into a logical discussion you quickly decide instead to respond with personal attacks rather than provide discussion points.
“It wouldn’t be the exact same government, moron. Bush is leaving office.”
Ok so basically because a president is leaving office, it becomes a new government? I’ll let this one slide though, as it could just be a simple diction error.
“it would be the exact same government that runs social security and medicare, both of which get high ratings from clients. Ignore that fact, too. I can see you spent most of your time from 14 to 19 outside rather than studying anything in those musty old school buildings.”
Wow, just wow. You are actually bringing up Social Security and Medicare being brought up as great success stories and then insulting my intelligence and study habits in the same paragraph.
Not only that, but you’re contradicting yourself as earlier you implied that with Bush leaving office it would be an entirely different government.
Sorry, Christian, I’ll try to go slower for you.
Bush leaving office is important because his political appointments and budget cuts have, in general, reduced public satisfaction with government services.
Before he was first elected, public satisfaction with social security was 82 percent, belying the Republican talking point about “government can’t do anything right.”
I’ve already given your shallow, thoughtless, oft-repeated GOP talking point more time than it deserves. Now why don’t you get back to trying to screw your mobile home tenants.
Nancy Pelosi’s greatest achievement was saving Social Security – first by obstructing Bush’s privatization, then by forbidding Dems to introduce Social Security bills in this Congress. Because any Social Security bill introduced this term would be seriously compromised by Republican amendments and obstruction, and used by the GOP for political gamesmanship during the election. Smartest thing Pelosi did was to leave Social Security untouched until Dems are stronger in Congress.
It’s not about satisfaction rates Al… it’s about fiscal solvency
And the GOP record, Christian, for fiscal solvency is?
It is: A national debt up from about $5 trillion to about $9 trillion in Bush’s two terms. That’s your record and it is pathetic!