Castle Leads in Rasmussen Poll
Apr 30th, 2010 by Tennessee Walker
According to Rasmussen “The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Delaware shows Castle picking up 55% support to Democrat Chris Coons’ 32%. Seven percent (7%) of the state’s voters prefer some other candidate, while another seven percent (7%) are undecided.”
Castle’s support has remained consistent since January and there has been little movement in the polls.
The report shows that Delaware has a Democratic tilt that Castle appears to have weathered. Castle is the choice of voters unaffiliated with any major party by a four to one margin.
While only 47% nationwide approve of the job Obama has done as president, 54% of Delawareans approve of Obama’s job performance.
This trend also follows in issues associated with Obama. A Majority of Delawareans 51% believe Obamacare should be repealed but this is below the national average.
Since Mr. Castle must first win the primary, this poll is putting the cart before the horse.
Oh! I think I get the point of polling Castle against Coons. Is this an attempt to convince primary voters that it is a forgone conclusion that Mr. castle will be the GOP candidate?
All I will say is – DO NOT underestimate Chris Coons if Castle wins the primary! He is a very formidable opponent. I’m not supporting him but he is not a pushover like the DE GOP is making him out to be…
He is a very intelligent, well-spoken debater. Be careful what you wish for, ask Hillary Clinton!
Frank is correct, Castle has to make it through the primary first, there’s alot of time between now and September!
Chris Coons is only known in New Castle County, where he raised property taxes over 25%. Mike Castle carries New Castle County every election, regardless of his opponent.
As for O’Donnell, she got 4.3% against Carper in 2006, and only 35% against Biden in 2008, with the full support of the State and National GOP. That made her the worst performing GOP candidate to run against Joe Biden in Delaware’s history.
My guess is if they had named her, the percentage would have gone from 7% support to 4% support. Rasmussen did her a favor.
If Christine had the worst performance against a guy with international wall to wall publicity and favorite son status as VP that would be understandable. The fact is she was in the same ball park as Jane Brady 36% and Ray’s first run 38%. Jane went on to be AG and if we could get Ray to run he could win anything in Kent county and maybe be governor. Historically, I have found her to be the first candidate in that situation to break 25% and they had to spend 4 million dollars and bring Biden off the national campaign trail to do it.
As for the write in campaign that was an historic achievement. She was not even on the ballot and won more votes than all the third party candidates combined. As you know it was a draft movement, if you don’t I can tell you first hand that it started without her as a protest movement. She was kind enough to allow people the opportunity to vote their convictions. Very little money was spent and it was short term. It was not a campaign for office. It cannot be included in your analysis in any honest way.
I think this poll is good news for Mr. Castle. There has been no momentum gained by Mr. Coons. He is stuck appealing to the left wing base. He has made no substantive effort to reach out to independent voters and it is showing.
2006 certainly counts, David. She showed up at the convention in 2006 with the usual “they’re not conservative enough” whining and all she managed to do was sink Protack and make Ting the candidate. That’s all she’s good for, making Republicans lose races. How’d ya like Ting, David?
I’m not a huge Protack fan, but at least the man knows the importance of a day’s WORK.
On a personal level Jan Ting and I still communicate. We weren’t political buddies, but we are personal friends. I even helped his campaign until Christine endorsed the write in movement then I focused most of my efforts on keeping Nancy Wagner in the house. So I will keep any commentary to my self. I supported Protack in the 2006 primary. I thought her addition to race was crazy and I blame the hard line right to life folks who couldn’t take yes for an answer. Protack was and is one of us, but making him yell it from the housetops is insane. The issue may be very important to many, but a lot of people care more about the economy and other issues. You have to build a coaliton. Education was their job, getting elected was his. I think they learned a lesson.
She was new to Delaware politics so I gave her a pass. I know Q. A. is going to give me a proverbial wack because she is going to claim that I always give her a pass. The fact is I think the total picture matters. Understanding the big picture and knowing that you made a mistake like entering the primary late and spliting the conservative and populist vote. No one is perfect. We choose between flawed candidates. I find Christine’s quirkiness a lot less anoying than Castle’s. The man seems to struggle to make even an easy decision. In these times, we need someone who has ideas that match the serious of the times. She does. He doesn’t. One of them is going to my candidate so I am not going further at this time.
Castle is way ahead because of the 4 to 1 independent slant which he works hard to keep every year.
In Delaware personalities become the headline and not the issues. I travel the country and nowhere else have I seen that fact.
As for the GOP when Castle was Governor the GOP was around 36% to 39% for the Dems, now it is a 18% spread so the independent voter is critical.
2006 was a fun year and I enjoyed the Senate race but it was a disappointment being called a “baby killer” by some RTL people.
Mike Protack
“Is this an attempt to convince primary voters that it is a forgone conclusion that Mr. castle will be the GOP candidate?”
It is a foregone conclusion. So Rasmussen, a private business, made the decision not to waste their resources on polling something that is not worth polling.
Coons puts up a brave front though.
Dear Friend,
Last week, I proudly stood up in front of voters in Rehoboth Beach, Dover, and New Castle and explained why our state needs fresh leadership, innovative ideas, and a new U.S. Senator who will bring a new way of doing business to Washington in this election.
Hundreds of Delawareans came out to each event to show their support, and thousands more went to our new website to sign up and get involved.
Our campaign is picking up steam and folks throughout our state – and down in Washington – are taking notice.
I need your help now to harness this momentum and get our message out. The best way to do that today is with a contribution to our campaign.
Will you contribute $25, $50 or even $100 today?
On Thursday, I issued a strong statement condemning the proposed plan to drill for oil off Delaware’s shore. We can’t risk what’s happening right now off the coast of Louisiana washing up on our beaches.
I was proud to see so many Delawareans sign our online petition against offshore drilling, and I am eager to take this fight to Washington.
That’s why I need your help today. Will you make a contribution?
Annie and I have been humbled by your support this past week and indeed these last few months. I’m grateful to have you by my side. Thank you.
Castle polled 74% over KHN and 61% over Spivack. 55% is not good news for Castle this early in the campaign.
It means Coons is in striking distance, and there is lots of time left. Castle does not have a record of improving his numbers over the course of a campaign.
KHN and what’s his name were unkowns. Coons is a known quanity to 65% of the state. He can win the race. 30 points is very doable in 6 months, but the problem is he hasn’t moved any since he entered the race. He is up 5 points all year. At the rate he is going he will lose 60/40. The important number is Castle’s. As long as he is above 50% the other number doesn’t mean much. Now let’s look at the Denis v. Mike numbers. In spite of a big undertow in 2006, Mr. Castle lost only 4 points from your early poll numbers. That shows that he doesn’t lose much. In 08, he won 61%.
Of course September could prove that number moot.
The love affair the degop has with the rich is scary. One of the reasons Protack had/has potential is populist bent. Too bad we are getting Michele Rollins shoved on us.
As for the pro lifers I applaud Protack’s consistent beliefs despite the GOP and rtl establishment who have tried to hurt him. Mike is conservative but doesn’t hate people or get extreme.
Castle is a lost cause for conservatives.
“The love affair the degop has with the rich is scary.”
If by this you mean the love affair the degop has with those candidates who can self finance a race is scary, then I have to agree with you. My first sales pitch that I received from the Urquhart Campaign was that he could self finance a race and not require party financing.
I have heard this argument before. I heard in 2000 that the party should support John Burris because he would self fund thru MBNA a campaign of 3 million dollars. I was willing to support John Burris regardless of the self financing commitment. John Burris is in my view still a great option for Governor or any elected office.
We also heard the same rationale for B. Gary Scott.
Yet I still received fund raising letters from both Scott and Burris after they were the GOP Candidates.
If the rationale for nominating a candidate is that they have deep pockets, then why should the GOP faithful part with their hard earned dollars that could go to other worthy GOP candidates??
I contributed to Bill Roth and George Bush in 2000 with the view that the Governor’s race was self financed. IN the end I received entreaties from the Governor’s race as the big guys fell short.
If someone chooses to self finance as John Corzine did in New Jersey. Then they need to say so and not accept individual contributions.
One cannot claim that the strength of your campaign is your fundraising capability. (Based on you own millions “loaned” to the campaign) and then have the bulk of your campaign financed thru your personal fortune.
This does not reflect the will of the people. This reflects your own personal wealth.
If your pitch is your personal wealth, say so. Don’t come back to the Republican faithful for more money. We are already giving to other candidates with our work, sweat and dollars.
“Oh! I think I get the point of polling Castle against Coons. Is this an attempt to convince primary voters that it is a forgone conclusion that Mr. castle will be the GOP candidate?”
Frank, I don’t know where to begin regarding the total stupidity of your post.
Rasmussen is a thoroughly respected Natiional polling organization. They do a daily tracking poll of the Obama approval ratings. They have been accused by the Obamaites of being too Conservative as their Obama approval ratings. The Rasmussen polling trend lower than the polling of the New York Times, Washington Post Etc.
Can you give up your Castle conspiracy theory propaganda for one moment and actually look at the facts???
This poll says Castle beats liberal Democrat Coons as of today. Nothing more nothing less.
Rasmussen does periodic statewide polls and they poll the number one candidates in both parties. This is meant for a nationwide audience. In their polling they actually ask for others. The fact that only 7% Identified another candidate says volumes about any other candidate. The fact that your candidate never shows up says more about your bias than anything else.
For the record Frank I did more for Christine O’Donnell in 2008 then anyone here other than David Anderson (Dave Knows what I did).
Frank, try and actually gather facts before you post. Flailing blind attacks on Rasmussen just makes you look really dumb. Rasmussen folks are in fact the good guys.
99% of Christine O’donnells problems are self made.
She has totally blown it with Republcian Women. This means she is dead in the water big time.
Once the Republican Women have deserted you (and they have) You are dead if you are a Republican Woman Candidate.
Christine O’Donnell has managed to achieve this status.
T.W. , your points are well taken about Rasmussen. My point is still, why are they polling the general election ? Why are they not polling the primary candidates? All I’m saying is that there seems to be this looking past that which has not happened yet.
O’Donnell is inept; it’s a shame, because Castle is vulnerable, but, there’s nobody to take him on.
“O’Donnell is inept; it’s a shame, because Castle is vulnerable, but, there’s nobody to take him on.”
Never Have I agreed with anyone more. Sadly this history of ineptness would not be improved if she were the endorsed Republican Candidate. Her history of dropping the ball and promising much while delivering little has turned off Conservative Republicans who supported her in 2008. (We have also had to deal with the moderates who can rightly claim “I told you so” about CO.)
I heard an interesting story from Kent County. While Christine is trying to get into the high ticket Vic Mead events without paying, she has yet to show up for a single Kent monthly meeting since she began this campaign. (these are free) This is the region that gave her her highest percentage of votes at the 2008 convention and secured her endorsement.
Smart move Christine, ignore the people who supported you in 2008.
Republican women in particular, who embraced Christine in 2008, are really ticked off.
Mary Spicer the president of the Delaware Federation of Republican Women took Christine O’Donnell to task on WGMD.
Making enemies of that group is a deathknell. As Forrest Gump’s Mom said, “Stupid is, as stupid does”.
“T.W. , your points are well taken about Rasmussen. My point is still, why are they polling the general election ? Why are they not polling the primary candidates? All I’m saying is that there seems to be this looking past that which has not happened yet.”
Frank they have been doing this nationwide for months. If you have a gripe talk to them.
They do a state poll about every other month and that will pick up.
Do you have ANY polling data that suggests Christine O’Donnell can beat Coons?
Rock solid Conservatives have dumped O’Donnell and are spending their time and energy with either the Kevin Wade Campaign or Urquhart.