Carney Leads in House Race
Dec 7th, 2009 by David Anderson
In a rare pick up potential for Democrats, former Lt. Governor John Carney leads in the race to replace Congressman Mike Castle, according to Public Policy Polling firm. While this is a bright spot for Democrats, it is not great news. Polling against unknowns at this point is pretty meaningless. The Republican field is not even set.
I do not believe the poll tells us what the final result will be. It does tell us relative strength today. Is anyone surprised that someone who won twice statewide is leading? PPP did an interesting analysis on does polling matter a year out. The answer is maybe.
In seven out of ten of the races the late 2007 polls actually gave a decently good indication of where the races ended up, even if the margins were off.
The biggest exceptions were North Carolina and Oregon and those two districts share a common thread: incumbents with somewhat iffy approval ratings whose challengers weren’t very well known statewide yet. The political conditions were right for Elizabeth Dole and Gordon Smith to lose but voters didn’t know Kay Hagan or Jeff Merkley yet- the polls in those states changed significantly over the course of the summer when they went on tv.I think that trend is a little worrisome for some Democrats who have been polling mediocre against opponents who aren’t very well known- Blanche Lincoln and Harry Reid in particular. If the political climate doesn’t get turned around they could end up being creamed when voters who don’t like them become more familiar with the alternatives- so long as those alternatives run solid campaigns, which is certainly not a given.
In races where both candidates were already pretty well known the 2007 polls gave a pretty good picture of where the races ended up. Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia all showed one of the candidates already holding a clear lead and those leads held up right on through November 2008. Alaska and Minnesota were within the margin of error and they stayed within it- past election day to some extent!
Campaigns matter. If John Carney does not have a commanding lead approaching 50% or have a near majority approval rating, he is vulnerable. The numbers were “54% of voters have no opinion about Carney. Among those who do 27% view him favorably and 18% unfavorably. Copeland is a blank slate to 66% of voters and Cullis is to 87%”. Ironically, the two best candidates that Republicans have for the house are running for the senate. I don’t feel like getting grief from either by suggesting one of them strategically reconsiders so I won’t bother. This poll shows that their is potential strength for the opponents to gain among independents and most undecided Republicans will go for the Republican next year. Any compentent Republican candidate will be above 40% by summer. The race will be competitive. Democrats will pour money into this race because it is one of the few bright spots while Republicans will be playing 50 races in an attempt to pick up the House. That dynamic gives Democrats an edge. Mr. Carney is close to maxing out his Democrat base. What you see now could be all that you get. That dynamic favors Republicans. Mr. Carney led handily for governor at this point. He has name recognition, but 54% do not know anything about his policy positions even after running for governor. We know that he likes children, wants people to run, likes windpower especially when he can profit from it, and is opposed to breast cancer (like everyone else). That will not win you a congressional seat.
This is perhaps on of the most dismal commentaries on the state of Delaware politics and even worse on the Democratic party that runs it.
A party hack also-ran loser of very limited intelligence with nothing more than a brief string of dubious public sinecures, a little electoral luck, and absolutely zero legislative experience beyond as a part time Senate figurehead is now odds on favorite to become US Representative from Delaware.
This state is going down the tubes.
“Polling against unknowns at this point is pretty meaningless. The Republican field is not even set.”
Neither is the Democratic field in the Senate race. And thanks for calling Copeland an “unknown.” I’m sure he appreciates that.
“Neither is the Democratic field in the Senate race. And thanks for calling Copeland an “unknown.” I’m sure he appreciates that.”
While Copeland is well known by the political class and Delaware political junkies, I think he would be the first to tell you that his name recognition numbers leave a lot to be desired. This in no small part contributed to his loss in 2008.
David’s initial point that Carney is running againsg “a player to be named later” is on point.
Thanks TW, Charlie Copeland is one of the finest people to hold office in a decade. He is well known in his area, but not statewide among the public He is still ahead of most.
That name recognition is something that few have. That is why I was intrigued about Mike Protack last year. He was on par with Markell. The perception of the chattering class and the public is often divergent.
Name Rec is the challenge Colin Bonini will have as well. Activists know him and Kent County knows him, particularly central and southern Kent county. He is a in an inviable position, however, because the incumbent has never run for office and is a blank slate to the public. Her husband will try to serve as her base of support, but she has almost no name rec.