Behind the Numbers
Dec 4th, 2009 by David Anderson
Public Policy Polling’s Tom Jensen spoke with DP about the Polling done by PPP in the state of Delaware. Mike Castle seems to holding his own from earlier in the year. While his approval ratings are lower than he is used to seeing, he is better off than many officials in the state. He has strength across Demographic lines in every age group. He has 48% of Democrats and 60% of Independents giving him positive ratings. He has 40% of blacks, half of other minorities, and close to 60% of whites approving of his job. He has a plurality of every age group as well. He even has positive ratings from 51% of liberals though most say they would vote for Biden. It seems Mr. Castle’s danger area may be that only half of conservatives give him a positive rating while in a match up they provide the largest block of his votes. 30% of Republicans think that he is too liberal and only 61% approve of his job performance. In comparison most successful politicians have at least 70% approval of their own party. GWB had 93% of his party in 2004. Governor Perry and Senator Hutchinson are both in the high 70′s.
I asked Mr. Jensen about those numbers. He said that it means that he would have a serious primary challenge, but should survive it as it stands now. If he gets to a general election, 79% of the Republicans fall back in line and support him while about 10% would favor Mr. Biden with the rest undecided.
Attorney General Biden has only a 65% approval among Democrats, while his over numbers are only 43%. He seems to have problems uniting Democrats while losing independents big and barely registering 10% among Republicans.
I asked him why he asked if Mr. Castle was too liberal, about right, or too conservative and not the same question about Mr. Biden. The answer was that the question was designed to gage potential primary weakness or even a potential tea party revolt in November.
Democrats are hoping to use Obama health care against Mr. Castle, but only 43% support it. It would be like clubbing yourself. The hope that Democrats have is that Mr. Biden has room to gain among his own party. The problem is that will only get him in the 45-47% range. Mr. Jensen said that it is a winnable race for Mr. Biden because 45% of the undecideds are Democrats who like them both. Yet, he sees it as a tough road and a likely pick up.
He hinted that Democrats will have better news next week when the Carney race comes out, but of course the campaign has yet to begin in that race. He also said that Democrat elected officials in Delaware are suffering from falling approval ratings. Senator Carper, Senator Kaufman, and Governor Markell have all taken hits. It seems like Democrats are generally taking hits across the country, and Delaware is not exempt. Those numbers will be released tomorrow. The big news is that Governor Markell is under 50% for the first time. That is at least a 20 point drop. The only good news for the Governor is that people seemed to move from positive to undecided and the majority have not harden to a negative position yet. The governor may have more challenges than protecting his fellow Democrats next year, he may have to watch his own back.
That news means that Democrat house candidates will not be able to count on Markell’s coattails as they did in 2008. If Republicans invest in the races now, they have the potential to take the house back. (My analysis). While I am giving analysis, I will offer free advise to Ms. O’Donnell. The inter party numbers show their is a sizable base from which one could challenge Mr. Castle, but it is a base upon which to build not the entire building. If she is to win, she will have to win by building her own credible identity. She has to win it, no matter what the discontent say there is not enough to for him to lose it. Turnout can make up 8 points that still makes the primary come out 53/47. It will take a hard edged campaign that hammers home, vision, leadership, and ideology. An ideological campaign alone will not win it and it will hurt in November. A campaign which sets out a positive conservative vision, assured leadership, and contrasts ideology could win. It is a gamble, but winnable. A victory won on these grounds 7 weeks before the big election would give an almost irresistable momentum.
If I gave free advise to the Congressman, it would be to notice that the majority of his November voting base consists of Conservatives who are Republicans, Democrats, and Independents so stop poking Conservatives in the eye. Conservatives want to win. Our backs are against the wall so the inclination is to support whomever wins. If you make it past a primary, all we ask is that you give us more respect. The only way we can believe that will happen is to start now. If not now, when?
[...] over at Delaware Politics interviewed Tom Jensen from PPP about the recent Castle/Biden polling and Jensen revealed that additional Delaware numbers would be [...]
Where is Frank when you need him?
Nice post, simple yet informative.
Mike Protack